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Studies
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The Institute
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Studies
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The Institute
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DS403

Probability and Statistics: Theory and Implementation

Barcelona Campus
Nov 07, 2022 - Nov 25, 2022
This course tries to show the existing diversity of approaches while staying within classical Kolmogorov's probability theory.
Barcelona Campus
Nov 07, 2022 - Nov 25, 2022
Andrey Khokhlov

Faculty

Andrey Khokhlov

Chief Researcher, IEPT RAS

Course length

3 weeks

Duration

3 hours
per day

Total hours

45 hours

Credits

6 ECTS

Language

English

Course type

Offline

Fee for single course

€1500

Fee for degree students

€750

Skills you’ll learn

Data AnalysisData ScienceProbability and StatisticsMathematical StatisticsModellingMonte-Carlo Methods
OverviewCourse outlineCourse materialsPrerequisitesMethod & grading

Overview

Machine Learning is a powerful tool that is widely used today and is specified in computer science education, while Statistics and Probability are traditionally studied in mathematical departments. Nevertheless, there is a strong relationship between these theories, and it is desirable to be aware of both general principles and differences in approaches. Indeed, machine learning uses mathematical and/or statistical models to gain an overview of the data to make predictions.

The novel contributions in data mining are mostly informal and usually linked with the Bayesian point of view on statistics. But, probability theory itself is more than just Kolmogorov's axiomatic approach or Bayesian reasoning. For instance, the frequentist approach of R. von Mises coexists with novel contributions from quantum probabilities until now. Thus, the overcoming of the formal separation in theoretical understandings may help to avoid confusion and mistakes.

This course tries to show the existing diversity of approaches while staying within classical Kolmogorov's probability theory. The necessary classical theoretical material would be explained as well. We aim to consider several paradoxical situations that arise in practice.

Most examples would be taken from natural sciences and simple situations in data analysis. The outcome is expected to be the practical training in understanding the popular statistical models and the ability to critically read a professional text. A standard undergraduate course in calculus is required; the simple basic experience in PYTHON, or R or MATLAB (or OCTAVE --- the freeware clone of the MATLAB) would also be needed.

Learning highlights

  • Analytical and Monte-Carlo Methods
  • Practical Analysis of Real Data
  • Appropriate Modelling
  • Detecting Exceptional Behaviour

Course outline

15 classes

Dive into the details of the course and get a sense of what each class will cover.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
1

Session 1

Classical finite models and the need for rigid theory. Paradoxes and Natural Sciences

Tuesday
2

Session 2

Combinatorics, cases of distinguishable and indistinguishable objects. Generation functions and other computational tools

Wednesday
3

Session 3

Conditional probabilities, the independence of events and their formal properties. Bayesian approach for finite and infinite discrete cases

Thursday
4

Session 4

Heuristic non-finite models derived by means of the symmetry arguments. Algebra of events and the corresponding mathematical theory. Probabilities in discrete sample spaces

Friday
5

Session 5

Different approaches to Probabilities: the model of von Mises and the classical model. General discrete model and the idea of the quantum probability model. Random variable from formal and heuristic points of view.

Monday
6

Session 6

Random variables from formal and heuristic points of view. Examples. Scalar and random vector variables and their properties. Mutual and group independence. Geometric models in multidimensional space, sequences and their limits.

Tuesday
7

Session 7

Moments and other characteristics of the random variables. Chebyshev inequalities. Whether the moments are always defined, whether moments define the distribution.

Wednesday
8

Session 8

The Law of Large Numbers and what Statistics can do. Sample space and several approaches in Statistics.

Thursday
9

Session 9

Integral-valued random variables and their generating functions. Computational techniques, analytical formulas and computer modelling.

Friday
10

Session 10

Basic discrete models and discrete random variables. Sequences of random variables and Random Walks model.

Monday
11

Session 11

Binomial distribution and asymptotics. The idea of the Central Limit Theorem and its meaning for the Natural Sciences. An experimental illustration

Tuesday
12

Session 12

Distribution functions and the classification of random variables. Back to Statistics: the main problem of Classical statistics. Non-parametric criteria

Wednesday
13

Session 13

In-depth: Lebeg integration and computational formulas in general cases. Rademacher functions and the sequence of independent random variables. Kolmogorov’s axioms and other approaches

Thursday
14

Session 14

In-depth: Sequences of random variables and several types of their limiting behaviour. Characteristic functions and their properties Mixtures of random variables.

Friday
15

Session 15

Central Limit Theorem and its constraints. Gaussian and non-gaussian statistics. Real data and corresponding traditional assumptions. Simulations.

Prerequisites

We do not follow the unique textbook: our course consists of several topics that are extracted from several classical monographs, the corresponding text fragments would be available. Also, the original lecture notes would be freely available in electronic format.

Methodology

We follow the current practice of teaching probabilistic methods from scratch: with the deconstruction of standard routine examples along with unexpected counterexamples. Each lesson is divided into a discussion of theory and joint analysis of a computational example or homework. In the middle of the course, an intermediate test is held, which consists of solving typical problems on the basic concepts of the theory.

Two tests will be conducted: an intermediate test and a final test. The final score is based on the class activity, percentage of completed homework and the results of both tests.

Test tasks are assumed by the variants of the examples studied in the lessons. The homework tasks assume more complicated formulations and independent method searches.

Grading

The final grade will be composed of the following criteria:
10% - Homework
20% - Class activity
15% - Intermediate test
55% - Final test
Andrey Khokhlov

Faculty

Andrey Khokhlov

Chief Researcher, IEPT RAS

After getting his Ph.D. in Algebraic Topology in 1983 Andrey worked in several scientific and/or teaching organisations, among them are the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow State University, and Baumann Technology University. The Scientific advising of the graduate and thesis students was part of his activities, not only in Russia, but also in France.

Andrey’s main results in science are linked with geophysical data processing, so naturally his teaching interests are now concentrated in the applied methods of Statistics and their algorithmic implementations. He currently helps his students avoid some common errors within the probabilistic inferences and support their attempts to study Probability and Statistics theory in general.

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Apply for this course

Snap up your chance to enroll before all spaces fill up.

Probability and Statistics: Theory and Implementation

by Andrey Khokhlov

Total hours

45 Hours

Dates

Nov 07 - Nov 25, 2022

Fee for single course

€1500

Fee for degree students

€750

How to secure your spot

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FAQ

Will I receive a certificate after completion?

Yes. Upon completion of the course, you will receive a certificate signed by the director of the program your course belonged to.

Do I need a visa?

This depends on your case. Please check with the Spanish or Thai consulate in your country of residence about visa requirements. We will do our part to provide you with the necessary documents, such as the Certificate of Enrollment.

Can I get a discount?

Yes. The easiest way to enroll in a course at a discounted price is to register for multiple courses. Registering for multiple courses will reduce the cost per individual course. Please ask the Admissions Office for more information about the other kinds of discounts we offer and what you can do to receive one.